A century and beyond: trends and implications of climate change from Agronomic Institute?s Historical Weather Dataset

Abstract

The Agronomic Institute of Campinas, located in São Paulo, Brazil, is one of the country’s pioneering research centers. Since 1890, the institute has maintained daily records of air temperature and precipitation, resulting in one of the longest continuous meteorological series in South America. Based on the hypothesis that 135 years of uninterrupted meteorological data provide valuable insights into the climate evolution of this tropical region, this study aimed to detect and describe signs of climate change in the dataset and make it publicly accessible. To achieve these goals, we applied rigorous data quality assessment methods to ensure the reliability of the records, followed by parametric and nonparametric trend analyses on various climate change indices. The dataset was validated, with only a few errors identified and corrected. Trend analyses revealed a shift toward warmer conditions, while precipitation patterns showed no significant changes. However, rising air temperatures led to increased atmospheric water demand, resulting in a significant decrease in the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. This trend strongly suggests intensified regional drought conditions, linked to an extended dry season, which may elevate the risk of crop yield reductions due to heat and water stress. The complete historical dataset is now publicly available at https://rpubs.com/gabrielblain/1265900 and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14747078, along with the statistical methods and tools for downloading the records.